Venezuela: A new Syria in the making?
With the turn of events in the last two weeks, it has become imperative to grasp the new realities of Venezuela, especially with the United States’ recognition of Mr Juan Guaidó as acting President, which triggered other countries to either recognise Mr Guaidó or the incumbent President, Nicolas Maduro. But for starters, it is worthy to mention that America is no longer that dependable and reliable ally the world used to know. Today’s America is a far deviation from the American that helped rebuild Europe post-world war II, or the America that helped lay the foundation for strong economic successes in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. In fact, America’s foreign and economic policies today are the complete opposite of everything that led to the huge successes in these countries decades ago. Hence, the need to be cautious in embracing America’s dictates especially in Venezuela which presents a very unique case. While it may sound very scintillating to hear America’s support for Mr Juan Guaidó, the real question is how far is America willing to go in enthroning him?
Honestly, I will not be writing this piece if America had marched words with actions in the last one week; one that can bring a quick end to Maduro`s illegitimate government. On the contrary, the Russians who are backing Maduro have shown more will to act decisively in his support. All these bring very fresh memories of the start of the Syrian civil war about eight years ago, therefore the need for the people of Venezuela not to get carried away by any of American’s or her Western allies’ pronouncements. Syria is a case study of one of America's most recent interventions. A case where millions of people placed their faith in the United States, believing America will be there for them or at least strongly stand with them. Today, that misplaced trust has cost the Syrians everything - At least 500,000 people have lost their lives in a senseless war, more than half of the pre-war population of Syria have fled to seek refuge, and the physical damage of the war has been estimated to worth some $400 billion. The horror we see in Syria today is a massive reflection of the failure of America, the failure of the greatest country in the world to stand by those fundamental tenets her foundation was strongly built on.
All over the world, people trying to explore the concept of freedom and enthrone true and participatory democracy look up to America for support - we all do. Citizens of these countries believe America's alliance is natural and unequivocal. Even in the most tyrannical societies, oppressed people continue to yearn for freedom. No matter how brutal the sting of the oppressor feels, the oppressed continues to agitate for a better life, as their voices can never be completely surmounted. They continue to fight for – the right to a more decent life, right to a level playing ground to succeed, the decentralisation of political powers concentrated in the hands of a privileged few, and creating an open market where the means of production and wealth is not concentrated in the hands of cronies and allies of the ruling class, believing that if these wrongs are considerably corrected, everyone can have a chance to a better life. They believe if they cry loud enough, the world may finally hear them and come to their aid. Unfortunately, events in the last decade have shown otherwise. Just like in Syria, the freedom the people of Venezuela long hoped for may never come; it may best be described as a mirage despite the huge price being paid, and which may get costlier if there is an outbreak of large scale crisis. With America's perfunctory retreat, many of us today now ask, is this huge cost worth it?
The problem in Venezuela today started long ago, just like in Syria. The political leaders of these countries over the decades made wrong choices, choices that exclude inclusive economic institutions and characterised by oppression, tyranny, nepotism and strong-hand dictatorship. In fact what we see today in these countries are the boomerangs of failed leadership, catastrophic and poorly conceived economic policies which foster poverty and did not bridge inequalities. The Venezuela social experiment in the last two decades is an indictment of pyrrhic socialism, a manifestation of a society who rather than roll up their sleeves, build consensus and identify workable solutions focussed on the short road to success. The nation adopted unsustainable approaches to fighting poverty and addressing inequalities in the early days of late Hugo Chavez government. The government squandered huge earnings from crude oil on financing social handouts, which in itself is an approach to prop the government. Hugo Chavez's government was very popular and was at some point a poster for socialism. Meanwhile, a huge chunk of the nation's revenue was syphoned through cronies and proxies. Rather than investing in viable ventures and building inclusive economic institutions that will position Venezuela on the part of long-term prosperity and bridge structural inequalities, Chavez took a path that led to nothing. He failed to save for the rainy days and it is not surprising, the country is in a perpetual state of chaos today.
Nikolas Maduro inherited a more chaotic nation, he is a weaker leader who with dwindling national revenue could not sustain the supposed hallmarks of the Chavez government, and his own policies are catastrophic. The social space has been conversely different from the Chavez era. Citizens’ agitations became rifer, especially as the government no longer have the resources to finance the social handout packages. Hence, hunger and starvation persist, and the nation tilted toward social disorder. This coupled with the advent of social media, as well as the far-reaching influence of the Arab spring, Venezuela descended into a perpetual state of chaos. Maduro's preferred option is to fasten his grips on power and in the course this, becoming more tyrannical. Venezuelans did not chicken out in the face of growing tyranny, because when people are pushed to the wall and left with little or no option, their will and resolve only become stronger.
Today, the crisis in the country has matured. With an emboldened opposition, anarchy looms and as always expected. Like it happened in Syria, Libya and decades ago in Vietnam, major foreign powers are taking sides which again is predicated on the old ideological divide; the East-West dichotomy. Venezuela will shortly become a new front on the decade long battle of ideology between the West and East, and in all of these, the voices, aspirations and hopes of the ordinary Venezuelans will be completely forgotten, as the focus will be how America counters Russia and how the Russians counteract the Americans. We will be back to familiar sights; the carnage of war, the horror of wanton destruction of lives and property and a country in ruins. In the richness of the Yoruba parlance, there is a saying that "if a god cannot save you, it should at least leave you the way he met you".
Taking wisdom from another African proverb, "when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers". If full-blown violence erupts in Venezuela today, the people who have been extraordinarily stressed in the last eight years will bear the brunt of yet another catastrophe. This should be worrying for all the key actors in this forthcoming needless crisis. If the world truly wants to help Venezuela, now is the time to find a consensus, an agreement that will be reached by would be future players if a civil war breaks out - Now is the time for the two men in Moscow and Washington to make that very important call. It is crucial they both leverage their influences on the two political sides to reach an agreement on a peaceful way forward. The Nicolas Maduro we know will most likely not willingly surrender power, at the same time the cost of the approaches foreign powers have now taken, is no doubt a one too expensive for this country. The only sensible option is a negotiation on how the Maduro’s government will peacefully transition power, and if the powerful foreign backers of these two sides will for once put the interest of the ordinary people first, some kind of agreements can be reached which they can both persuade or pressure Maduro and the opposition to accept.
There are numerous lessons to learn from Syria for Maduro, the Opposition, Russia, the United States and the other key players in this crisis. The world needs to ring it loud and clear, we cannot afford to have another Syria situation.
Peace!
Olaniyi Precious Olarewaju 2019
All over the world, people trying to explore the concept of freedom and enthrone true and participatory democracy look up to America for support - we all do. Citizens of these countries believe America's alliance is natural and unequivocal. Even in the most tyrannical societies, oppressed people continue to yearn for freedom. No matter how brutal the sting of the oppressor feels, the oppressed continues to agitate for a better life, as their voices can never be completely surmounted. They continue to fight for – the right to a more decent life, right to a level playing ground to succeed, the decentralisation of political powers concentrated in the hands of a privileged few, and creating an open market where the means of production and wealth is not concentrated in the hands of cronies and allies of the ruling class, believing that if these wrongs are considerably corrected, everyone can have a chance to a better life. They believe if they cry loud enough, the world may finally hear them and come to their aid. Unfortunately, events in the last decade have shown otherwise. Just like in Syria, the freedom the people of Venezuela long hoped for may never come; it may best be described as a mirage despite the huge price being paid, and which may get costlier if there is an outbreak of large scale crisis. With America's perfunctory retreat, many of us today now ask, is this huge cost worth it?
The problem in Venezuela today started long ago, just like in Syria. The political leaders of these countries over the decades made wrong choices, choices that exclude inclusive economic institutions and characterised by oppression, tyranny, nepotism and strong-hand dictatorship. In fact what we see today in these countries are the boomerangs of failed leadership, catastrophic and poorly conceived economic policies which foster poverty and did not bridge inequalities. The Venezuela social experiment in the last two decades is an indictment of pyrrhic socialism, a manifestation of a society who rather than roll up their sleeves, build consensus and identify workable solutions focussed on the short road to success. The nation adopted unsustainable approaches to fighting poverty and addressing inequalities in the early days of late Hugo Chavez government. The government squandered huge earnings from crude oil on financing social handouts, which in itself is an approach to prop the government. Hugo Chavez's government was very popular and was at some point a poster for socialism. Meanwhile, a huge chunk of the nation's revenue was syphoned through cronies and proxies. Rather than investing in viable ventures and building inclusive economic institutions that will position Venezuela on the part of long-term prosperity and bridge structural inequalities, Chavez took a path that led to nothing. He failed to save for the rainy days and it is not surprising, the country is in a perpetual state of chaos today.
Nikolas Maduro inherited a more chaotic nation, he is a weaker leader who with dwindling national revenue could not sustain the supposed hallmarks of the Chavez government, and his own policies are catastrophic. The social space has been conversely different from the Chavez era. Citizens’ agitations became rifer, especially as the government no longer have the resources to finance the social handout packages. Hence, hunger and starvation persist, and the nation tilted toward social disorder. This coupled with the advent of social media, as well as the far-reaching influence of the Arab spring, Venezuela descended into a perpetual state of chaos. Maduro's preferred option is to fasten his grips on power and in the course this, becoming more tyrannical. Venezuelans did not chicken out in the face of growing tyranny, because when people are pushed to the wall and left with little or no option, their will and resolve only become stronger.
Today, the crisis in the country has matured. With an emboldened opposition, anarchy looms and as always expected. Like it happened in Syria, Libya and decades ago in Vietnam, major foreign powers are taking sides which again is predicated on the old ideological divide; the East-West dichotomy. Venezuela will shortly become a new front on the decade long battle of ideology between the West and East, and in all of these, the voices, aspirations and hopes of the ordinary Venezuelans will be completely forgotten, as the focus will be how America counters Russia and how the Russians counteract the Americans. We will be back to familiar sights; the carnage of war, the horror of wanton destruction of lives and property and a country in ruins. In the richness of the Yoruba parlance, there is a saying that "if a god cannot save you, it should at least leave you the way he met you".
Taking wisdom from another African proverb, "when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers". If full-blown violence erupts in Venezuela today, the people who have been extraordinarily stressed in the last eight years will bear the brunt of yet another catastrophe. This should be worrying for all the key actors in this forthcoming needless crisis. If the world truly wants to help Venezuela, now is the time to find a consensus, an agreement that will be reached by would be future players if a civil war breaks out - Now is the time for the two men in Moscow and Washington to make that very important call. It is crucial they both leverage their influences on the two political sides to reach an agreement on a peaceful way forward. The Nicolas Maduro we know will most likely not willingly surrender power, at the same time the cost of the approaches foreign powers have now taken, is no doubt a one too expensive for this country. The only sensible option is a negotiation on how the Maduro’s government will peacefully transition power, and if the powerful foreign backers of these two sides will for once put the interest of the ordinary people first, some kind of agreements can be reached which they can both persuade or pressure Maduro and the opposition to accept.
There are numerous lessons to learn from Syria for Maduro, the Opposition, Russia, the United States and the other key players in this crisis. The world needs to ring it loud and clear, we cannot afford to have another Syria situation.
Peace!
Olaniyi Precious Olarewaju 2019
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