Of Economic Statistics and Development By Lanre Oluwaseun Asiwaju

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Last Wednesday, the International Conference Center, Abuja was alive as President Jonathan rolled the carpets to celebrate his “achievements” since assumption of office. The high point of the event was the reeling out of statistics by coordinating minister of the economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and her colleagues at the federal executive council.

 

First, I state unequivocally that the statistics cited by Okonjo-Iweala were ambiguous and intended to achieve a dubious purpose. In her presentation, she highlighted that Nigeria’s GDP currently grows at 6.5 per cent (NBS) or 7.2 per cent (IMF). However, she forgot to tell us what it was prior to the inception of the GEJ administration in 2011 and what policy of government stimulated this growth.

 

In a data obtained fromhttp://www.tradingeconomics.com, the annual GDP growth rate was 7.67 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 and it steadily increased, hitting an all-time high of 8.60 per cent in December of 2010 and had since averaged 7.03 per cent. I therefore ask, what has changed in the GDP growth rate? It is also important that we consider the unemployment rate and percentage of Nigerians living under the poverty line to see if correlations exist between these parameters.

 

From available records, unemployment rate increased from 5.8 per cent in January of 2008 to 19.7 per cent and 23.9 per cent in December 2010 and January 2012 respectively. Also, poverty continues to increase as 68.0 per cent of Nigerians are stated to be living below $1.25. Furthermore, the consumer price index which measures the changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of 740 goods and services increased steadily from 120.3 in July, 2011 to 144.8 in April, 2013 (graphs are attached) despite the recent single digit inflation rate of 9.1 per cent recorded in April, 2013.

 

Secondly, another data I also found disturbing was the taunted increase in reserves at a time when crude oil price hovers around a hundred dollar per barrel and government’s appetite for borrowing continues to grow. I would have expected Dr. Iweala to highlight what cost-saving policy of government that helped in this regards. Rather, she went painting a glorious picture of Nigeria to Nigerians who continue to endure hardship. It is worth noting that the reserves were depleted from $67m to almost nothing by the Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration prior to 2011. So, what increase is she talking about?

 

Since inception of the GEJ regime, the fight against corruption is at its lowest ebb even as graft in the public sector reached its peak in recent months judging from the disappearance of 2 trillion naira fuel subsidy fund, multibillion naira pension scheme fraud, 2.1 billion naira mint scam among others.

 

Furthermore, one germane question that has to be answered remains: on what basis should Nigerians evaluate the GEJ led government? Comparison with previous mediocre PDP governments? Comparison of work done with available resources, expectation of Nigerians, campaign promises, implementation of annual budgets? I dare say all!

 

Ultimately, the human development demographics of Nigerians as typified by the United Nations Development Programme annual report and not some mundane economic statistics concocted to suit government’s whimsical purposes will determine the performance or otherwise of a government. Currently, Nigeria is in the low human development category and ranked 153 out of 186 countries in the 2013 HDI report (http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/NGA.html).

 

I hope Mr. President and his team will stop this ignoble play to the gallery, roll up their sleeves and get back to work.

 

God bless Nigeria!!!


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